The iPad has been available for less than two years, but at least one analyst from J.P. Morgan believes an “increasing risk of a bubble burst” to the tablet market awaits in the second half of 2011. Based on exaggerated build plans from tablet makers and a lack of a high-volume tablet competitor to the iPad, the firm has slashes its tablet sales forecasts for 2011 by 20 percent to a 65 million unit estimate. Are we sitting on a tablet bubble, ready to burst later this year?
According to JP Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz tablet build plans by Apple’s competitors have declined by approximately 10 percent since early March, a sign he believes means, “non-Apple tablet hopefuls have adjusted to the weak showing so far”. He described the trend as an “early dos of reality” and that in order to avoid the risk of a bubble burst, the market needs a high-volume competitor. So far the Asus Eee Pad Transformer, Motorola Xoom, BlackBery PlayBook and Samsung Galaxy Tab have “failed to gain traction” and “consequently reduced build plans”.
The chart above paints the grim picture. Keeping in mind these are J.P. Morgan estimates, the build plans still represent cause for concern since only HTC, Lenovo and Apple appear fixed on meeting previously forecast estimates. Moskowitz went on to explain that soon we will “see how the back-to-school reception is,” while others are waiting to roll out 4G LTE tablets. Unfortunately the “limited upward pressure” in build activity this summer will likely come from the tablet leader, Apple.
Sounds like a tough pill to swallow, don’t you think? Last time we checked Asus Eee Pad Transformer inventory was becoming akin to the white unicorn — impossible to find. The upcoming Galaxy Tab 10.1 given to attendees at Google I/O last month also received a strong reception and BlackBerry PlayBook sales should pick up following the software update coming this summer.
via AppleInsider
