Nokia’s Capital Markets Day for investors takes place this Friday in London. In the run up, there are some seriously salacious rumours flying about the internet: Nokia is teaming up with Microsoft on something, Nokia could join up as a Windows Phone 7 partner, that one of Nokia’s current smartphone platforms could be dropped, or even that Nokia could adopt Android.
So what exactly is going to go down? We asked three seasoned Espoo watchers for their predictions. Read on to see what they reckon.
We asked three journalists who’ve been covering Nokia for years what they think recently hired Nokia CEO Stephen Elop will announce on Friday.
Thomas Ricker, senior editor at Engadget
Ricker has been quick to debunk previous “Nokia joining a new OS” rumours in the past. Here’s what he told us:
“It’s my belief that factual rumors and hopeful fictions spawned of frustration, and spurred by Elop’s “build, catalyze and/or join a competitive ecosystem” remark, have combined over the last few weeks to create a mega-rumor that has Nokia switching to Windows Phone 7.
I find it very hard to believe that Nokia will purge its MeeGo or Symbian operating systems in favor of something else. As a Symbian replacement, Windows Phone 7 certainly doesn’t scale downward to support Nokia’s goal of “smartphone democratization.” And I don’t see any outward deceleration of Nokia’s efforts related to MeeGo. Besides, any meaningful move to another OS would slow, not accelerate, Nokia’s return to smartphone dominance (and large profit margins) when taking into account the radical shift this would create for Nokia services and its Qt developer community.
I see Nokia announcing a reorganization and other concrete steps that will accelerate MeeGo’s replacement of Symbian at the top of its product portfolio, perhaps with ecosystem support from Microsoft and others. I’m thinking something big, similar to the size of Sony’s recently announced PlayStation suite for Android. Remember, Nokia is still profitable and smartphone adoption is still in its infancy when looking at market maturation globally. As such, Nokia doesn’t have to abandon its more profitable strategy of owning the OS, hardware, and services to become just another OEM – it still has time.”
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Nokia's CEO and president Stephen Elop is expected to announce something big on Friday. But what?
Rafe Blandford, All About Symbian
Though in charge of the world’s biggest Symbian community site, Blandford is optimistic about a shift to Windows Phone 7. Here’s his educated guess:
“Given Nokia’s market performance in the last few years, Elop’s mandate for change and the rumbling of rumours in the last few weeks I think it’s reasonable to assume that some major changes will likely be announced by Nokia on Friday.
Assuming that there are major changes, I think the introduction of Windows Phone to Nokia’s device portfolio is the most likely scenario. However, the real question is how far it will go. Dipping a toe in the water with a US focused device? Or a broader adoption that sees the eventual displacement of Symbian to lower costs devices?
I would expect MeeGo to be retained for high end and tablet like devices. However a desire to make sure it ships ‘only when ready’ may mean the first commercial MeeGo handset from Nokia is delayed until later in the year. In the longer term, with an adoption of Windows Phone, there would be less pressure on Nokia to move MeeGo down into the mid tier; that could be a good thing, as it would enable Nokia’s MeeGo devices have a tighter high end focus.
Whatever strategy is revealed there will be no over night changes – strategy transitions takes time to execute – even in the fast moving mobile industry. An executive shake-up would underline the strategy shift and allow Elop to build a leadership team of his own choosing.”
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Ewan MacLeod, Mobile Industry Review
MacLeod published the interview in which former Nokia exec Anssi Vanjoki admitted that the Nokia N97 was a “tremendous disappointment.” He’s convinced a Windows Phone 7 switch will happen.
“Nokia needs to announce something big. Something that will shake the market. Something that will quieten the legions of doubters. When even the credit ratings agencies begin rattling their swords, it’s time for a radical change in strategy. Multiple sources are telling me that Nokia will announce Windows Phone 7 support. What is less clear is the status of Symbian and MeeGo. I still think Nokia can (continue to) deliver with both those platforms, but the company has to do something. Getting into bed with Microsoft – properly – really does make (some) sense to me.
I’d like to see bold statements. I’d like to see bold moves. The wider market completely forgets Nokia’s scale and logistical might. I’d love to hear the CEO explain that by Q4 2011, Nokia intends to ship 100 million Windows Phone 7 units, rising to 200m by the second quarter of 2012. I know this is rather unlikely, but that’s the kind of table-thumping movements I’d love to see from the company.
Symbian is still phenomenally useful for the lower-end and I can still see the developing markets and portions of the developed markets buying Symbian devices in their millions on-going. It’s going to be interesting to see what the company does with MeeGo given the Intel collaboration.”
