Electronic Entertainment Design And Research (EEDAR) is the Californian company the giant videogames publishers like Electronic Arts, Activision and Ubisoft turn to, to predict whether their next game will be a hit (or whether a particular feature to be implemented will be worth the investment). Now, the company’s President Geoffrey Zatkin has revealed that only four per cent (see update below!) of videogames they’ve analysed actually made money.
Zatkin, in a Forbes interview, also revealed that in analysing over 6,000 games, EEDAR have also discovered that 60 per cent of a game’s budget goes on reworking or redesigning the game as it goes along. EEDAR analysis also reveals how many more sales a “robust” multi-player mode adds to a game, how the promise of downloadable content keeps games out of secondhand bins (thus meaning more full-price sales) and when to release the game.
That four per cent figure is the top news though – this means that videogame publishers are even worse at predicting what will be a hit, and controlling costs, than the infamously embattled music industry. Does this mean the future is for low-cost entry level game franchises (network downloads, games made by indie developers etc.) that will be picked up by the major publishers for sequels only when they demonstrate a fanbase? Answers on a postcard, please…
UPDATE: Zatkin has clarified the Forbes numbers as a slight misunderstanding of his position. Zatkin says that only 20 per cent of games that are started in production are ever completed. And of that 20 per cent that hit retail shelves, only 20 per cent are significantly profitable – so, four per cent of the total. All very confusing – and the clarification raises further questions. Like, who is cancelling so many games? Do Electroinc Arts, Microsoft, Ubisoft etc. really cancel 80 per cent of their titles in production? Doesn’t seem likely. Or is Zatkin including homebrew and non-professional developers. Methinks Zatkin and EEDAR’s figures may need some more clarification…
